Most recent early warning · VZ · 08 Oct 2026
1.1h of warning before a 11.4% fall became visible. The price peaked at 19:00 UTC; the warning was on the record before the fall could be seen.
Market-risk warning · crypto, and US equities in market hours
Hours of warning. Every miss on the record.
Type what you hold. See what is changing around it, how serious it is and how much evidence stands behind the call, then keep it under watch after you close the page.
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- 573
As of 11 Oct 2026 09:17 UTC, measured by the scan scheduler: 573 of 573 liquid crypto instruments scheduled, 486 with live market data in the last cycle. Source (JSON)
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Most recent miss · BIAF · 08 Oct 2026
No early warning A 46.2% fall from the 15:00 UTC peak. Warnings arrived only once the fall was already visible. That is detection, not warning. It counts against us, and it stays on the record.
Last 30 days, counted per trading pair: 133 large falls. 78 had no usable early warning, 8 were warned only marginally, 47 were warned early.
These count falls, not warnings: how often a warning is followed by a fall is in the record below. A single case is one fall, not a typical lead time; the median is in the record. Case files as computed 11 Oct 2026. Definition: a major event is a fall of >= max(8%, 3x the coin's 24h volatility) within 24h of a 72h high; a catch requires an EARLY, ADVERSE, IN-HORIZON, UNUSUAL-for-that-engine warning before the fall was visible. Every case file, misses included (JSON) →
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What is changing, how serious it is and what is connected, on the market as it is right now. When the evidence is too thin to make a call, the read says so instead of guessing.
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You name what you hold. You hear when risk changes around it.
- Hear it earlyA warning when risk starts building around a position, and a public record of how often that warning came early and how often it did not.
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- Only what changedThe situation stays open. You hear when it escalates, eases or changes shape, not every time a number ticks.
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Every holding is read along the same six questions.
- ConcentrationAre several holdings quietly becoming the same risk?Positions that move together under stress, read from how they actually co-move rather than what sector they are filed under.
- ContagionIs stress somewhere else starting to pull on what you hold?Which markets are falling together on the downside, and whether your positions sit in that path.
- LiquidityIs it getting harder to get out?Trading conditions thinning around an asset, estimated from market data and labelled as an estimate.
- FlowIs money leaving faster than usual?Unusual movement of money into and out of sectors and assets, against what is normal for each.
- RegimeHas the market changed character?The current market state and how fresh that read is, so a calm-market assumption is not carried into a stressed one.
- ShockWhat would a past stress move do to this book?Your positions run through historical stress moves, as a scenario, not a forecast.
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- DetectNotice risk building around an asset or a market.
- ConnectLink it to what else is moving and to what you hold.
- JudgeSay how serious it is and how much evidence stands behind it.
- WatchKeep the situation open and report only when it changes.
- VerifyScore the call against what prices did, beside the base rate.
- RememberKeep the outcome on the record, hits and misses alike.
The record
How much warning, measured. The misses included.
Every warning is registered before the outcome exists, then judged against realized prices and against how often the same fall happens anyway. Precision is published beside recall.
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- Registered firstEach warning is written down with its claim and horizon before the outcome exists.
- Judged on pricesScored against what the market did, on a volatility-scaled bar.
- Against the base rateRiding a falling market earns nothing.
- Read-only by designNo order routing, no path to capital.
Questions
Frequently asked questions
What is Fahali?
Fahali gives you hours of warning before market risk reaches your assets, and publishes every miss beside every catch. It watches crypto markets continuously and US equities on a rotating schedule during market hours, from Future Legends Inc. Every warning is registered with its claim and horizon before the outcome exists, then scored against realized prices, so the record cannot be edited after the fact. Investors put a portfolio under watch, desks share one picture of risk, and AI agents call it as a market-risk check before they act. It is read-only by design: no orders, no path to your capital.
How much warning does Fahali give before a market drawdown?
A median 3.93h of warning before 405 of 1,710 qualifying crypto drawdown events (recall 23.68%), with precision 8.36% against a 5.07% base rate. It also warned in 13.1% of sampled quiet 8h windows, where no qualifying event came within 8h either side. That is one published stratum (crypto, 8h horizon), not a figure for every market. Record as measured 11 Oct 2026. The current measurement is always served at https://app.fahaliai.com/api/track-record/lead-time.
How are Fahali's warnings judged?
Each warning is written to the record with its direction or event, its horizon and its confidence before the outcome exists, so it cannot be edited or backfilled. When the horizon closes it is judged against realized prices on a volatility-scaled bar, compared with the base rate of the same event happening anyway, and given a measured grade from beats chance to worse than chance. Precision is always published beside recall.
Can AI agents use Fahali?
Yes. Agents connect through the Model Context Protocol at https://mcp.fahaliai.com or through the REST API, and every agent verdict returns with a SHA-256 integrity hash, so it can be checked later. The free agent key includes: 50 calls/day - verdict, tape, replays, track record; MCP + REST, SHA-256-hashed verdict receipts; Public methodology + judged record. Paid agent plans: Agent Starter $49/month, Agent Pro $199/month, Agent Scale $999/month.
How much does Fahali cost?
The public market read on this page is $0, with no card and no account. Plans for people: Retail $19 per month, Professional $79 per month, Elite $299 per month, Desk $1,499 per month, Enterprise $4,999 per month and up. Professional starts with a 3-day trial. Current prices are always served at https://app.fahaliai.com/api/tiers.
Does Fahali trade or give investment advice?
No. Fahali is read-only by design: it has no order routing and no path to capital. It publishes observations about market risk and the measured record behind them, not recommendations to buy or sell.
Can I verify Fahali's record myself?
Yes, and that is the point. The method is public and the record is served as JSON per stratum, with sample size, base rate, recall and a measured skill grade. Every call stays on it, hits and misses alike. Each agent verdict carries a SHA-256 integrity hash, so any quoted call can be checked against the record by your own team.
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