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Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":1829,"warned_events":433,"recall_pct":23.67,"lead_p25_hours":1.87,"lead_median_hours":3.94,"lead_p75_hours":5.57,"effective_sample":21638,"precision_pct":9.12,"base_rate_pct":5.38,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:52.635Z","claim_family":"event_detection","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":112967,"quiet_warned":14589,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":12.91,"events_from":"2026-09-02T17:40:51.997Z","base_kind":"symbol_matched","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"9.1% of 21,638 warnings came true, against a 5.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":106,"warned_events":41,"recall_pct":38.68,"lead_p25_hours":3.17,"lead_median_hours":4.78,"lead_p75_hours":6.36,"effective_sample":1232,"precision_pct":35.51,"base_rate_pct":31.82,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:51.833Z","claim_family":"event_detection","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":6111,"quiet_warned":893,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":14.61,"events_from":"2026-10-11T14:01:36.791Z","base_kind":"symbol_matched","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9969799378016746,"reason":"35.5% of 1,232 warnings came true, against a 31.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. 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Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.98)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"momentum","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":3189,"warned_events":47,"recall_pct":1.47,"lead_p25_hours":0.17,"lead_median_hours":0.4,"lead_p75_hours":0.68,"effective_sample":26205,"precision_pct":50.69,"base_rate_pct":49.99,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:53.307Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":139177,"quiet_warned":4536,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":3.26,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:34:46.717Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9882834238782169,"reason":"50.7% of 26,205 warnings came true, against a 50.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. 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Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"risk_intelligence_systemic","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":2084,"warned_events":2,"recall_pct":0.1,"lead_p25_hours":0.28,"lead_median_hours":0.73,"lead_p75_hours":0.73,"effective_sample":755,"precision_pct":39.27,"base_rate_pct":13.45,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:53.820Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":135838,"quiet_warned":283,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.21,"events_from":"2026-09-01T05:35:40.466Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"39.3% of 755 warnings came true, against a 13.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":105,"warned_events":36,"recall_pct":34.29,"lead_p25_hours":11.54,"lead_median_hours":14.52,"lead_p75_hours":21.65,"effective_sample":775,"precision_pct":85.03,"base_rate_pct":54.49,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:53.273Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":8055,"quiet_warned":798,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":9.91,"events_from":"2026-10-09T13:25:03.561Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"85.0% of 775 warnings came true, against a 54.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","qualifying_events":60,"warned_events":7,"recall_pct":11.67,"lead_p25_hours":5.24,"lead_median_hours":6.43,"lead_p75_hours":19.38,"effective_sample":1331,"precision_pct":66.42,"base_rate_pct":51.11,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:54.172Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":5786,"quiet_warned":573,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":9.9,"events_from":"2026-10-09T13:25:03.561Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"66.4% of 1,331 warnings came true, against a 51.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":133,"warned_events":21,"recall_pct":15.79,"lead_p25_hours":2.93,"lead_median_hours":3.93,"lead_p75_hours":5.93,"effective_sample":362,"precision_pct":66.33,"base_rate_pct":52.51,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:52.239Z","claim_family":"directional","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":11582,"quiet_warned":186,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.61,"events_from":"2026-10-09T15:55:06.807Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999477701824,"reason":"66.3% of 362 warnings came true, against a 52.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":133,"warned_events":7,"recall_pct":5.26,"lead_p25_hours":1.9,"lead_median_hours":6.91,"lead_p75_hours":6.93,"effective_sample":339,"precision_pct":19.29,"base_rate_pct":7.76,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:52.340Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":11582,"quiet_warned":230,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.99,"events_from":"2026-10-09T15:55:05.610Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999917771,"reason":"19.3% of 339 warnings came true, against a 7.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"day":"2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","qualifying_events":133,"warned_events":2,"recall_pct":1.5,"lead_p25_hours":0.91,"lead_median_hours":4.91,"lead_p75_hours":4.91,"effective_sample":109,"precision_pct":33.04,"base_rate_pct":9.75,"publishable":true,"methodology_version":"v9-early-onset-warnings-only-2026-10-10","computed_at":"2026-10-14T18:52:52.346Z","claim_family":"magnitude","identity_population":"verified_only","quiet_windows":11582,"quiet_warned":84,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.73,"events_from":"2026-10-09T15:55:43.165Z","base_kind":null,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999757766,"reason":"33.0% of 109 warnings came true, against a 9.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}}],"withheld":{"available":true,"count":215,"note":"Measured strata below the headline bar. Every one carries its measured verdict against chance (verdict.grade) and the reason it is below the bar. A grade of 'indistinguishable from chance' is a finding about the warning, never evidence of calm.","strata":[{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"absorption_volume","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"absorption_volume · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"absorption_volume","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for absorption_volume: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":25328,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":46.78,"base_rate_pct":54.49,"recall_pct":48.02,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":37.53,"quiet_windows":106157,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":558,"lead_median_hours":17.12,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (46.78 vs 54.49)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"46.8% of 25,328 warnings came true, against a 54.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.15,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":14.75,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for agent_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":338,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":52.66,"base_rate_pct":51.11,"recall_pct":0.59,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.39,"quiet_windows":122108,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":7,"lead_median_hours":16.89,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+1.55pp, Wilson95 floor -3.77pp, n_eff=338)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7156835913849677,"reason":"52.7% of 338 warnings came true, against a 51.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.72)."}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for agent_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":3657,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":53.46,"base_rate_pct":54.49,"recall_pct":56.56,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":43.5,"quiet_windows":10807,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":69,"lead_median_hours":16.96,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (53.46 vs 54.49)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.10585510531344877,"reason":"53.5% of 3,657 warnings came true, against a 54.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.11)."}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":257557,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for agent_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"agent_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"agent_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":1.54,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.07,"quiet_windows":8472,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":17.69,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for agent_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"anomaly","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":298888,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"anomaly · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"anomaly","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":331167,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for anomaly: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":7331,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":48.81,"base_rate_pct":56.05,"recall_pct":31.31,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":26.35,"quiet_windows":73281,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":232,"lead_median_hours":48.92,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (48.81 vs 56.05)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"48.8% of 7,331 warnings came true, against a 56.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.09,"quiet_windows":93197,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":976,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":52.84,"base_rate_pct":56.05,"recall_pct":21.74,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":33.63,"quiet_windows":113,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":15,"lead_median_hours":62.48,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (52.84 vs 56.05)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.022101984786197293,"reason":"52.8% of 976 warnings came true, against a 56.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.02)."}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":227203,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for canonical_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"canonical_verdict_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"canonical_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for canonical_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":42,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":57.14,"base_rate_pct":50.8,"recall_pct":0.1,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.02,"quiet_windows":111069,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"lead_median_hours":2.98,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+6.34pp, Wilson95 floor -8.6pp, n_eff=42)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7921277176856251,"reason":"57.1% of 42 warnings came true, against a 50.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.79)."}},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.06,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.02,"quiet_windows":89829,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":2.98,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cascade_engine · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cascade_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":123546,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cascade_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"causality_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"causality_engine · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"causality_engine","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for causality_engine: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":11495,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":51.19,"base_rate_pct":54.49,"recall_pct":21.04,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":16.21,"quiet_windows":107625,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":247,"lead_median_hours":17.75,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (51.19 vs 54.49)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":6.588063428125679e-13,"reason":"51.2% of 11,495 warnings came true, against a 54.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for committee_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for committee_verdict: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":809,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":50.49,"base_rate_pct":54.49,"recall_pct":11.43,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":7.92,"quiet_windows":14038,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":16,"lead_median_hours":21.64,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (50.49 vs 54.49)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.011403468558303875,"reason":"50.5% of 809 warnings came true, against a 54.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.01)."}},{"stratum":"committee_verdict_awm2 · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"committee_verdict_awm2","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.03,"quiet_windows":13693,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for committee_verdict_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"contagion_directional · 8h · 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Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.89)."}},{"stratum":"crash_predictor · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"crash_predictor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for crash_predictor: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_rotation · 24h · 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equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_rotation","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":311120,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_rotation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_structure","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":273062,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"cross_asset_structure · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"cross_asset_structure","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":311120,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for cross_asset_structure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"dark_pool","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"dark_pool · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"dark_pool","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for dark_pool: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"decline_volume_surge · 8h · 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equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"decline_volume_surge","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for decline_volume_surge: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"down_up_volume_ratio","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"down_up_volume_ratio · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"down_up_volume_ratio","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for down_up_volume_ratio: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · 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Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":1.19,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":25,"lead_median_hours":18.39,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_24h: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":112749,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":6620,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":42.55,"base_rate_pct":38.59,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":79692,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999999762004,"reason":"42.5% of 6,620 warnings came true, against a 38.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_24h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_24h_up · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_24h_up","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":94490,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_24h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.55,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":17,"lead_median_hours":3.62,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_6h: neither a non-directional population for the magnitude gate, nor enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":303,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":5.91,"base_rate_pct":5.57,"recall_pct":0.17,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.17,"quiet_windows":126603,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":3,"lead_median_hours":0.28,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+0.34pp, Wilson95 floor -1.8pp, n_eff=303)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.572520735091312,"reason":"5.9% of 303 warnings came true, against a 5.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.57)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.03,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":0.28,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":10136,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":11.13,"base_rate_pct":8.02,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":87345,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"11.1% of 10,136 warnings came true, against a 8.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_6h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":341,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":2.6,"base_rate_pct":4.71,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":100366,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.018035391413728563,"reason":"2.6% of 341 warnings came true, against a 4.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.02)."}},{"stratum":"early_warning_6h_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_6h_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_6h_up: truth condition pump_5pct_v1 has direction 'up'; this base measures downside drawdown only","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h · 72h · 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equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_72h_up","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":234630,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_72h_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_72h_up · 72h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis · 48h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for early_warning_synthesis_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2 · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"early_warning_synthesis_awm2","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for early_warning_synthesis_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"etf_inflow","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"etf_inflow · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"etf_inflow","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for etf_inflow: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"fall_warning_8h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for fall_warning_8h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"fall_warning_8h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"fall_warning_8h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319402,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for fall_warning_8h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_detected","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.58,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.7,"quiet_windows":119582,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":16,"lead_median_hours":1.55,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_detected · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_detected","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.44,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.16,"quiet_windows":137626,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":12,"lead_median_hours":1.05,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_detected: truth condition flash_crash_v1 bounds the event to 900s and this base cannot express a duration bound; scoring it against a base that counts slow declines would inflate the lift","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_precursor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":297410,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"flash_crash_precursor · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"flash_crash_precursor","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":328291,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for flash_crash_precursor: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":3489,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":48.58,"base_rate_pct":53.82,"recall_pct":17.08,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":12.06,"quiet_windows":69212,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":110,"lead_median_hours":60.04,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (48.58 vs 53.82)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":2.902464935061744e-10,"reason":"48.6% of 3,489 warnings came true, against a 53.8% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":47,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":60.78,"base_rate_pct":51.38,"recall_pct":0.55,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.11,"quiet_windows":85014,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":4,"lead_median_hours":20.1,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+9.4pp, Wilson95 floor -4.86pp, n_eff=47)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_beats_chance","label":"Likely beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9000932017233885,"reason":"60.8% of 47 warnings came true, against a 51.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely beats chance (probability the edge is real: 0.90)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":72554,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":746,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":51.24,"base_rate_pct":53.57,"recall_pct":39.13,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":34.51,"quiet_windows":113,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":27,"lead_median_hours":68.51,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (51.24 vs 53.57)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.10166550781866968,"reason":"51.2% of 746 warnings came true, against a 53.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.10)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":221825,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for forecast_72h_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":32,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":55.88,"base_rate_pct":51.27,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.6970979130752153,"reason":"55.9% of 32 warnings came true, against a 51.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.70)."}},{"stratum":"forecast_72h_awm2 · 72h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"forecast_72h_awm2","horizon_tier":"72h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":0,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for forecast_72h_awm2: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":9543,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":16.03,"base_rate_pct":7.27,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":117909,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"16.0% of 9,543 warnings came true, against a 7.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"funding_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":1830,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":30.57,"base_rate_pct":7.53,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":135838,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":1,"reason":"30.6% of 1,830 warnings came true, against a 7.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_stress","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"funding_stress · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"funding_stress","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for funding_stress: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":1138,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":7.18,"base_rate_pct":8.68,"recall_pct":2.2,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":1.19,"quiet_windows":12398,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":5,"lead_median_hours":0.68,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (7.18 vs 8.68)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.03018200263734594,"reason":"7.2% of 1,138 warnings came true, against a 8.7% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.03)."}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":285656,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":43,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":6.39,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.05,"quiet_windows":9626,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.0022762620752586615,"reason":"0.0% of 43 warnings came true, against a 6.4% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"hidden_liquidity · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_liquidity","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":318008,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_liquidity: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_size_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"hidden_size_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"hidden_size_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for hidden_size_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"large_print","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"large_print · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"large_print","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for large_print: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":281533,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for learned_fall_risk: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"learned_fall_risk · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"learned_fall_risk","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for learned_fall_risk: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_measured · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_measured","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_proxy","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"leverage_proxy · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"leverage_proxy","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for leverage_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":310,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":6.09,"base_rate_pct":8.99,"recall_pct":2.73,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.68,"quiet_windows":12231,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":5,"lead_median_hours":1.16,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (6.09 vs 8.99)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.025889900485732475,"reason":"6.1% of 310 warnings came true, against a 9.0% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.03)."}},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":284152,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_depth_orderbook: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_depth_orderbook · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_depth_orderbook","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":9278,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_depth_orderbook: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime_flip","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"market_regime_flip · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"market_regime_flip","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for market_regime_flip: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"meta_pattern · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"meta_pattern","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":273062,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for meta_pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"meta_pattern · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"meta_pattern","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":311120,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for meta_pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"microstructure","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"microstructure · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"microstructure","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for microstructure: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ml_ensemble","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":298888,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ml_ensemble · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ml_ensemble","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":331167,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ml_ensemble: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":280267,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":39,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":7.12,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.36,"quiet_windows":8355,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.002437810562707865,"reason":"0.0% of 39 warnings came true, against a 7.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"ofi_candle_proxy · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_candle_proxy","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":1889,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_candle_proxy: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":273,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":45.96,"base_rate_pct":51.3,"recall_pct":0.62,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.99,"quiet_windows":15465,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":4.25,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (45.96 vs 51.3)","verdict":{"grade":"likely_worse_than_chance","label":"Likely worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.039165755772037514,"reason":"46.0% of 273 warnings came true, against a 51.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Likely worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.04)."}},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276684,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ofi_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ofi_measured · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ofi_measured","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":13775,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ofi_measured: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"pattern","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":298888,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"pattern · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"pattern","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":331167,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for pattern: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"rising_volume_flat_price","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"rising_volume_flat_price · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"rising_volume_flat_price","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for rising_volume_flat_price: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":8525,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":12.22,"base_rate_pct":12.58,"recall_pct":18.85,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":18.88,"quiet_windows":113999,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":283,"lead_median_hours":6.79,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (12.22 vs 12.58)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.15514311742104447,"reason":"12.2% of 8,525 warnings came true, against a 12.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.16)."}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.01,"quiet_windows":132235,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":8525,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":12.22,"base_rate_pct":12.58,"recall_pct":10.52,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":10.76,"quiet_windows":117396,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":196,"lead_median_hours":3.22,"claim_family":"event_detection","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (12.22 vs 12.58)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.15514311742104447,"reason":"12.2% of 8,525 warnings came true, against a 12.6% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.16)."}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_72h · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_72h","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.01,"quiet_windows":135302,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for risk_intelligence_72h: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"risk_intelligence_liquidation","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for risk_intelligence_liquidation: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"risk_intelligence_liquidation · 8h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"sentiment","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":293497,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for sentiment: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"sentiment · 8h · 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equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"sentiment_news","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":323183,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for sentiment_news: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"stablecoin · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":756,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":296481,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":39,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":43.59,"base_rate_pct":8.33,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.33,"quiet_windows":10136,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999957401174,"reason":"43.6% of 39 warnings came true, against a 8.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."}},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":55,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":56.36,"base_rate_pct":52.51,"recall_pct":1.5,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.4,"quiet_windows":11582,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"lead_median_hours":7.93,"claim_family":"directional","reason":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+3.85pp, Wilson95 floor -9.24pp, n_eff=55)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7160811003481163,"reason":"56.4% of 55 warnings came true, against a 52.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.72)."}},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.41,"quiet_windows":4345,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.05,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319402,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319402,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_volume_burst_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_volume_burst_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"tick_volume_burst_up · 8h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"tick_volume_burst_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":319402,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for tick_volume_burst_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":297410,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility · 2h · 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crypto","effectiveSample":1,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":9.13,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":13946,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"no lead time (warned_events=0)","verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.19795217254957342,"reason":"0.0% of 1 warnings came true, against a 9.1% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.20)."}},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":281097,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_iv_rv · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_iv_rv","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":12843,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_iv_rv: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":149629,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":6.15,"base_rate_pct":7.46,"recall_pct":40.68,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":48.25,"quiet_windows":85445,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":866,"lead_median_hours":1.14,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (6.15 vs 7.46)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"6.2% of 149,629 warnings came true, against a 7.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · crypto","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable crypto evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":39598,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":4.71,"base_rate_pct":6.27,"recall_pct":9.05,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":9.08,"quiet_windows":100116,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":158,"lead_median_hours":0.88,"claim_family":"magnitude","reason":"precision does not beat its own base rate (4.71 vs 6.27)","verdict":{"grade":"worse_than_chance","label":"Worse than chance","probabilityOfSkill":0,"reason":"4.7% of 39,598 warnings came true, against a 6.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Worse than chance (probability the edge is real: 0.00)."}},{"stratum":"volatility_realised · 2h · equity","effectiveSample":0,"identityPopulation":"verified_only","engine":"volatility_realised","horizon_tier":"2h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"claim_family":null,"reason":"no measurable equity evidence for volatility_realised: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate","verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"}},{"stratum":"volatility_v2 · 2h · 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unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"stablecoin","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for stablecoin: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":756,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"state_vote_verdict · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"state_vote_verdict","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":296481,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for state_vote_verdict: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto · magnitude","claim_family":"magnitude","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":43.59,"base_rate_pct":8.33,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.33,"quiet_windows":10136,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":39,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"beats_chance","label":"Beats chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.9999999957401174,"reason":"43.6% of 39 warnings came true, against a 8.3% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Beats chance (probability the edge is real: 1.00)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no lead time (warned_events=0)"},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_hawkes_jump · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_hawkes_jump","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_hawkes_jump: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto","stratum_id":"tail_dependence · 48h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":252798,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity","stratum_id":"tail_dependence · 48h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tail_dependence","horizon_tier":"48h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":299822,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for tail_dependence: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto · directional","claim_family":"directional","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":56.36,"base_rate_pct":52.51,"recall_pct":1.5,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.4,"quiet_windows":11582,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":2,"effective_sample":55,"lead_median_hours":7.93,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.7160811003481163,"reason":"56.4% of 55 warnings came true, against a 52.5% base rate for the same instruments and horizon. Indistinguishable from chance (probability the edge is real: 0.72)."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"lift is not distinguishable from zero (+3.85pp, Wilson95 floor -9.24pp, n_eff=55)"},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.41,"quiet_windows":4345,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_kalman_momentum · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_kalman_momentum","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_kalman_momentum: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_mean_reversion · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_mean_reversion","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_mean_reversion: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_topology_regime","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_topology_regime: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_topology_regime · 8h · equity · 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unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":276439,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"ta_transport_shift · 8h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"ta_transport_shift","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":8023,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for ta_transport_shift: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto · event_detection","claim_family":"event_detection","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":0,"base_rate_pct":0,"recall_pct":0.09,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0.07,"quiet_windows":96767,"base_kind":"symbol_matched","warned_events":1,"effective_sample":50,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable_from_chance","label":"Indistinguishable from chance","probabilityOfSkill":0.5,"reason":"No usable base rate for this claim (0.0%), so the record cannot be set against chance."},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"precision does not beat its own base rate (0.0 vs 0.0)"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto","stratum_id":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0.05,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":null,"quiet_windows":null,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":1,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":21.09,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · equity","stratum_id":"temporal_arbitrage · 24h · equity · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"temporal_arbitrage","horizon_tier":"24h","bar_regime":"equity","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":112749,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable equity evidence for temporal_arbitrage: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · crypto","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · crypto · unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance · 8h · equity · 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unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_flow_imbalance_up","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_flow_imbalance_up: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_flow_imbalance_up · 8h · equity · 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unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_liquidation_cascade","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_liquidation_cascade: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_liquidation_cascade · 8h · equity · 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unknown","claim_family":"unknown","engine":"tick_price_gap","horizon_tier":"8h","bar_regime":"crypto","precision_pct":null,"base_rate_pct":null,"recall_pct":0,"quiet_alert_rate_pct":0,"quiet_windows":289491,"base_kind":null,"warned_events":0,"effective_sample":0,"lead_median_hours":null,"headlineEligible":false,"verdict":{"grade":"not_measured","label":"Not measured","probabilityOfSkill":null,"reason":"no judged calls in this stratum yet — there is nothing to grade, which is not the same as a chance-level result"},"belowHeadlineBarBecause":"no measurable crypto evidence for tick_price_gap: none of the three gates could measure it — no non-directional population for the magnitude gate, not enough adverse directional calls at a single judge floor for the directional gate, and no event-probability population for the event gate"},{"stratum":"tick_price_gap · 8h · equity","stratum_id":"tick_price_gap · 8h · equity · 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